OPL 2019 Split 1 Gauntlet Qualification Guide

The OPL Gauntlet is a single-elimination tournament in which teams are seeded based on their position at the end of the regular season. Only the top five teams at the end of the regular season compete in the gauntlet, with the final two contesting the season’s grand final.

The higher the team is ranked in the standings at the end of the split, the better their chances at earning a place in that hallowed final battle for the championship. Interestingly, since the gauntlet system was introduced in Oceania, the team that finished first in the regular season has always gone on to win the grand final.

There are two weeks left in the regular season, and each team has the opportunity to improve their place on the leaderboard by earning up to five match points. Two teams – the Bombers and the Chiefs Esports Club – have already reserved their place in the Gauntlet and are fighting for first seed. Meanwhile, Legacy Esports and the Dire Wolves are having their own private battle at the other end of the leaderboard. The middle of the leaderboard… that can only be described as a mathematical mess.

Fear not, organisational enthusiasts! I have crunched the numbers, mopped up the spilt kiwi fruit juice, and answered the most important questions of all – which teams can progress to the postseason gauntlet stage in the first split of 2019? And what do they need to do to get there?

NB:

• Best/lowest possible finish is the mathematically best/lowest possible final standing on the leaderboard at the end of the 10 weeks of the regular season.

• If teams finish the regular season of the OPL on equal match points, seeding is determined by head-to-head record.

Bombers

It is safe to say the Bombers have dominated Split of OPL 2019. The currently sit atop the leaderboard with a 14-2 record. Their two losses have been to the same team, their top-seed rivals the Chiefs. If they earn five wins in their remaining five matches, the Bombers cannot be stripped of their first place standing at the end of the season, will score a guaranteed place at Rift Rivals, and will have a opportunity to play a best-of-five series with qualification to the Mid-Season Invitational on the line.

Even if the Bombers lose every single one of their five remaining matches, the high-flying team cannot place lower than second from here, courtesy of their positive head-to-head records against the only two teams that could match points with them below the Chiefs – Avant Gaming and Mammoth.

Current position: 1st Place
Best possible finish: 1st Place
Lowest possible finish: 2nd Place

Chiefs Esports Club

At the beginning of the split, the Chiefs and Bombers established themselves as the league’s top two teams, and this continues to be reflected on the table heading in to the final two weeks.

The Chiefs still have an opportunity to dethrone the Bombers and secure themselves a place in the final. If the Chiefs earn at least one more match point than the Bombers across the remaining five matches, they will end the split on equal records. If this occurs, the Chiefs will move in to first place courtesy of their 2-1 head-to-head record over Bombers.

It is worth nothing if the Chiefs win ANY of their remaining five matches, the lowest they can place at the end of the regular season is third. This could see Mammoth overtake them in the standings, but not Avant Gaming due to the Chiefs’ positive head to head record in that contest.

However, if the one match win of the Chiefs is against Mammoth, the Chiefs secure themselves second place. If Chiefs lose every one of their remaining five matches, they cannot place lower than fourth, as they would defeat Gravitas on head-to-head, and cannot be overtaken by Order, the Dire Wolves or Legacy on total match points.

Current position: 2nd Place
Best possible finish: 1st Place
Lowest possible finish: 4th Place

Avant Gaming

Avant Gaming has defied all preseason predictions and now find themselves sitting in third, with a chance to finish the split as high as second. In order to do this, Avant must win all their remaining matches, and the Chiefs need to lose all of theirs in return.

If Avant want to maintain their third place seeding around of the gauntlet, they must earn:

• At least the same number of points as Mammoth and Gravitas over the remaining five matches, putting them ahead of both on head-to-head records, AND
• At worst, avoid dropping two or more points than Order, which keeps them ahead of the currently sixth placed squad.

In order to guarantee a place in the gauntlet, Avant must earn at least three points in the remaining five matches, or two points with one of those wins against Order.

Current position: 3rd Place
Best possible finish: 2nd Place
Lowest possible finish: 6th Place

Mammoth

Mammoth could finish this split run in style and earn themselves an invitation to represent Oceania at Rift Rivals. However, to keep this dream alive they must defeat the Chiefs when the two teams face in Week 9.

To achieve third place and put themselves one win away from a spot at Rift Rivals, Mammoth must:

• Earn at least one more match point than Avant Gaming over the remaining five matches, AND
• Earn at worst one fewer match points than Gravitas, AND
• Earn at worst one fewer match points than Order (if Order manage to defeat Mammoth in week 10), OR earn at worst two fewer match points than Order (if Mammoth defeat Order in Week 10).

Mammoth’s chance to compete in the gauntlet is not guaranteed however, though they are certainly well positioned. They must compete with the three other teams vying for the remaining three spots in the top five – Avant Gaming, Gravitas and Order. Mammoth have a positive head-to-head against Gravitas, a negative head-to-head against Avant and an even record against Order.

To secure their place, Mammoth must earn at least three points over the remaining five matches, OR at least two points with one of those match points earned against Order.

Current position: 4th Place
Best possible finish: 2nd Place
Lowest possible finish: 6th Place

Gravitas

Gravitas are currently ranked fifth , but could place as high as third if results turn out in their favour across the board. Fortunately for Gravitas, they have a positive head-to-head record against Avant, and have the opportunity to close the gap between Mammoth as well as stave off a last minute rise from Order when they play against both teams in the final two weeks.

Finishing in third place would mean everything to this newly formed organisation, as it would put them one win away from earning the right to represent Oceania at Rift Rivals.

On the flip side, a spot in the gauntlet is not even guaranteed for Gravitas. If Order beat Gravitas in Week 10, the two teams could end up equal on points. In this case, with a positive head to head record over Gravitas, Order could end the split in fifth, bumping Gravitas to sixth place and out of gauntlet contention.

Current position: 5th Place
Best possible finish: 3rd Place
Lowest possible finish: 6th Place

Order

Every. Match. Matters. For Order, this rings true now more than ever. They are knocking on the door of a place in the gauntlet, but none of the five teams on the other side are rushing to open it. Of these five teams, there are three Order can still move ahead of in the standings – Avant, Mammoth, and Gravitas.

In Week 9, Order play against Avant and in Week 10 they face Mammoth and then Gravitas. This means they have the opportunity to earn points while simultaneously denying them from their direct competitors. The matches against Gravitas and Mammoth are particularly important. If Order can earn a win against these two teams, they will have a positive head-to-head record against each one, putting them at an advantage on the leaderboard if any ties occur.

In summation, Order could realistically place anywhere between third and sixth place.

Current position: 6th Place
Best possible finish: 3rd Place
Lowest possible finish: 7th Place

Legacy Esports/Dire Wolves

Legacy and the Dire Wolves entered this split with rosters filled with fresh faces and the view to developing their respective squads for a strong showing in the second split of the year.

Unfortunately, for the first time since the Gauntlet system was introduced, neither team has earned enough match points to secure a place. In fact, these are the two teams who are struggling to stay away from last place, the wooden spoon.

Currently trailing Legacy by two wins, it is up to the Dire Wolves to achieve a win streak over the final two weeks if they want to stay off the bottom of the table.

For Legacy:

• Current position: 7th place
• Best possible finish: 6th place
• Lowest possible finish: 8th place

For Dire Wolves:

• Current position: 8th place
• Best possible finish: 7th place
• Lowest possible finish: 8th place

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Regardless of which team you support, there are some pretty important matches to watch over the next couple of weeks. If you’re a fan of one of the four teams surrounded by Gauntlet-shaped question marks – Avant Gaming, Mammoth, Gravitas and Order – stick your pink wards on the Order matches, as they will have big implications for all four teams.

Who do you think will qualify for the Gauntlet? Let me know on Twitter – @Bicycellis.